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Author Topic: Wildcard players odds?  (Read 11519 times)

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Offline Bliss1083

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Wildcard players odds?
« on: March 13, 2013, 04:20:07 pm »
Kind of wondering what others were thinking on the wildcard rematch 2 player to win it all or player to win a certain bounty. Odds of a million point game happening? How many players out of the group achieves a kill screen. Just stuff for fun.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2013, 04:31:53 pm by Bliss1083 »
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Simpsons99

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2013, 05:23:36 pm »
I say i have a 1 in 20 shot at win  for Wildcard madness
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Offline Bliss1083

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2013, 06:15:41 pm »
I'm just hoping to not screw up and not get on the actual score board. Lol
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Offline ChrisP

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2013, 06:50:53 pm »
- Whether there will be a million-point game depends on how much Ross plays  ;D. I have a sense that there might be a surprise though, for somebody else. I'm going to set it at a 33% chance. I don't know, I just have a feeling that there's going to be a "breakthrough" of some kind, for someone.
- Between 2 and 4 kill screens sounds about right.
- No feelings about the other bounties.

As for my prospects, by my count, there are 14-16 guys - about half the field - who are at least as good as me on my best day, several of whom I would consider at least marginally better, and a few who outclass me utterly.

What I'm relying on is me having a good day and some of the better players having a rough one!

What's exciting about this tournament is that I feel I have a chance at a top 3 score, which could never happen at a Kong Off unless I were to improve significantly.

I'm starting at midnight on Friday and playing for five to six hours or until I have a 700K or better game, whichever comes first. Then I'll take a break to sleep and come at it again. I have a major hard-on for this tournament.
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Fast Eddie

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2013, 07:07:46 pm »
i think its pretty open, lots of players have a good shot at winning...looks like at least half the field have a PB of over 800k!

odds of 1m probably around 50%...

 8)
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Offline Bliss1083

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2013, 07:22:43 pm »
Haha Chris. I'm shooting to break 700k as well. If I can just get a non point press game going which is so hard to do since I don't run straight through levels as much anymore than I could have a shot at my goal. As far as games I might have about three. It's my weekend with my twin sons and that trumps all. But I'm sure I'll wear them out to ge them to bed early.
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Offline stella_blue

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2013, 07:45:13 pm »
Quote from: Bliss1083 on March 13, 2013, 07:22:43 pm
Haha Chris. I'm shooting to break 700k as well. If I can just get a non point press game going which is so hard to do since I don't run straight through levels as much anymore than I could have a shot at my goal. As far as games I might have about three. It's my weekend with my twin sons and that trumps all. But I'm sure I'll wear them out to ge them to bed early.

Good luck, Joseph!

That's a nice string of 12k Level 1-1 scores you've got there.  I have a small collection of my own, all on MAME, so I'm painfully aware of how difficult they are to get.  For me, few and far between.

By the way, do friends give you a hard time for sharing your name with a sinister character on the TV series, "The Following"?

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Offline Bliss1083

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2013, 08:31:53 pm »
It's really hard but my arcade has given me a 12,800 and 12,200 in the last two weeks. Im afraid to turn it off. Everytime I reset the power it seems like donkey kong is ruthless. Lol. Before those 12k games  It's been over a year since I broke 12k on donkey kong. Very few and far between. I'm gonna try and stream a 12k game I hope Friday. That is after I put up a regular game. I usually shoot for 9k 1-1 on a point press game. I go for 20k 1st level. 45k second level. 80-85k 3rd and 120-130k after the 4th. Rare that I get them but I figured if I could get that and then average 52k levels for as long as I can a million could maybe happen. Thought about point pressing a barrel board for every level and hope I could get into the mid 900k's to see what I need to do to improve. Sorry ADHD kicking in. I'm everywhere. Lol.
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Offline John73

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2013, 08:43:15 pm »
I'd be paying at the very least 1,000-1 but more likely 1,000,000 to 1.  If I was a racehorse, I would already be at the glue factory before the race even commences  ;D   My only outside chance at a prize would be a freak game where I beat my personal best on my first man and have a shot at claiming most boards completed.

Really looking forward to this.

If my times are correct, then it kicks off a 6pm Saturday my time (Brisbane) and 7pm (Allen's time in Sydney - not sure if they are still on DLS time or not).    So anyone that might be up during the official Midnight kick off time in the U.S. who has insomnia can at least watch my pitiful skills before the real players wake up :)

www.twitch.tv/MrBumpNJump
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Offline Bliss1083

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2013, 08:52:27 pm »
John having the early game as you do you really have the upper hand if you can get a kill screen off the bat. A lot of playing time while others are a sleep. I'll try and wake up before my kids to get an early game in but that about it until later that night when they go to bed.
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Offline stella_blue

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2013, 09:00:45 pm »
Quote from: John73 on March 13, 2013, 08:43:15 pm
So anyone that might be up during the official Midnight kick off time in the U.S. who has insomnia can at least watch my pitiful skills before the real players wake up :)

www.twitch.tv/MrBumpNJump

Consider your channel "followed", John.

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Offline Monstabonza

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2013, 10:08:31 pm »
Yeah I Suppose we all have a 30 to 1 chance but if there was a tote on this I'd be somewhere in the 1.5 to 2 million to one area I reckon.
My aim is to get on the board. That will be a new PB and I'm fine with that.
I only singed up because I thought the more the merrier and maby this will push me further.
Since singing up I raised my PB and in the last week over Half my scores beat my pre sign up PB.

And John were still on DLS time. So 7pm
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Offline Bliss1083

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2013, 10:23:37 pm »
WTg monsta. I hope everyone makes the board at over 250k. I guess you can say everyone a 30 to 1 shot but I'd say I'm more like 200 to 1. But theirs a saying "even the sunshines on a dogs ass" too bad it's supposed to rain in Indianapolis that day though. Lol
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Offline John73

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2013, 10:40:43 pm »
Quote from: Bliss1083 on March 13, 2013, 08:52:27 pm
John having the early game as you do you really have the upper hand if you can get a kill screen off the bat. A lot of playing time while others are a sleep. I'll try and wake up before my kids to get an early game in but that about it until later that night when they go to bed.

Be sure to look out your window at all the flying pigs when I get my kill screen lol
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Offline John73

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Re: Wildcard players odds?
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2013, 10:44:56 pm »
Quote from: Monstabonza on March 13, 2013, 10:08:31 pm
My aim is to get on the board. That will be a new PB and I'm fine with that.

Didn't realize you were another Aussie playing. Good luck, think we have our work cut out for us beating Allen :)  I'm hoping too to just be able to post a qualifying score.

I'll definitely give your stream a watch at some stage and I'll add a note to the Aussie Forum that you're another Aussie player to check out this weekend.
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