OK, last time I did a 25 game average I was getting to level 7-5. But here is the thing, my elevator effectiveness was way off. I was rusty. Also what Hank's chart does not take into account is that some people like myself can get on a roll per say, and do much better than one would usually do.
Also I wonder. It says if one averages 500,000 their odds are about 13 to 1. OK I am about half that, but I have reached 500k 9 times now. Does that mean if I reach 500k 4 more times I am about due for a killscreen? Also I have reached 600k now 3 times. 2 actually in the past 10 days. So I reach 600k 6 times does that mean I am also due for a killscreen?
Just wondering if the odds can work that way as well?
George, I don't think you're reading Hank's old analysis correctly. His analysis and chart is mainly an attempt to approximate the variability of the randomness of a full game and whether those factors generally factor in your favor or against you in any specific kill screen attempt. In other words, the idea is to take a player of a specific skill level at a snapshot in time (assume this player will NEVER get any better regardless of how many months that player plays all of these future games). So, for any given situation, his decision making, precision of execution, percentage chance of a brain fart, etc, etc is always identical. That player, ON AVERAGE, gets through a certain number of screens (or gets a certain score). Based on that, how LUCKY does this player have to get for all of the stars to align and he gets a kill screen. So, the wild barrels are not coming at difficult times, the barrels are steerable at the right times and are not coming down on their own at the wrong times, the star pattern never breaks down, he gets a huge number of free passes, etc, etc. How many things that are controlled by randomness have to go unusually well for this player to reach the kill screen on any given attempt.
This does NOT literally mean that a player with an average score of 250k will literally need 3 years to reach a kill screen when playing the game every day. When playing that often, this player will obviously improve his skill level naturally, plus, as you said, a player can always get on a roll (in the zone) on any given attempt and PLAY BETTER than they usually do.
It's easy to mix up the subject of this thread with what Hank's post was talking about when reading that chart -- but it can still give people a decent understanding that they might be less than a month away from a killscreen if they are consistantly going deep in games, etc. But, the timeframes may not line up with reality because those variances or improvements in the player's skill is not factored in.
