It's been ten days since my last update, so I thought I would write something again.
Since my last update I have gotten a 583.7k, and today a 670k, so I am getting closer. But how close really?
Since the beginning of the month I have kept the information about my deaths per game in a database, from which a lot of statistics can be deduced. For example my daily success rates with trendlines (based on almost 3000 boards in total);
All the trendlines are positive, but clearly my rivets are both my worst part of the game, and also improving too slowly - so I should add some effort there.
The next thing I could do is to export my weekly average from the last week (05/21-today) which are as follows;
5+ barrels: 89.79%
5+ pies: 87.78%
4+ springs: 94.37%
5+ rivets: 81%
Plugging these numbers into my progress calculator (a simple binomial calculation) I get a 0.158% chance of a killscreen, or 1 in 631. (as long as I have a deathless start)
In actuality I think the odds are better than this now, because I have had some very concrete improvements in my game just during the last week - and once you pass 90% success rates, even a small percentage point increase will have a big impact on the total KS probability. It may still be months away though, but things are still going in the right direction!
