Billy Mitchell's Direct Feed Recordings are MAME Generated

[Sqrlmonger]

I'd like to see some of these ways. If there are so many, could you please list a few.

As I said early on, I have not played Donkey Kong in more than 35 years, nor am I an expert in arcade hardware, so I will leave the gameplay and technical aspects of it for others to prove or disprove. However, being a former programmer and electronics technician, I know enough to know that a myriad of seemingly plausible explanations, either real or imagined, can be given to explain why Billy Mitchell's gameplay looks like MAME.

This may be true, but we are only concerned with the real ones.  Furthermore, possible explanations are not the same thing as "What actually happened".  The question before us is not if there is ANY way to explain it, but if the specific tapes and recordings in question were actually created by a method that would explain it.

Ever hear the expression "can't see the forest for the trees"? Well, that's how many people seem to be about MAME, they are so focused on it that they seem to all but ignore everything else. Billy Mitchell certainly looks guilty, but appearances can be deceiving. Ask yourself this, if you were being accused of being a cheater, would you not want people to consider all available evidence?

Yes there is more than just the MAME evidence and it should be explored and cultivated just as well.  You won't get a debate on that point. However the MAME evidence is already sufficient for the simple reason that I don't have to prove how the magician's trick worked once I demonstrate that he levitated.  I already know that his claim that he "levitated with his mind" is absolutely untrue.  The same thing applies here, if we prove that the submissions were MAME we don't need to prove specifically how he pulled the wool over people's eyes along the way, we know what we saw was a trick and the rest is just the details of how he cheated.

This is a very complex situation, and no matter where the facts may lead, I continue to remain objective, and refuse to brand someone a cheater on the basis of a single piece of evidence.

Objectivity is certainly good but the evidence has sat out there for weeks now and there are no credible counters to it.  This in spite of the fact that if Billy did not cheat would merely have to supply a list of the components he uses in his recording setup.  Again, proving his innocence is not about if there is ANY explanation in the universe, it's about an explanation of what Billy actually did and whether it actually produces "MAME-like" recordings.

I also have to strongly disagree that the MAME evidence is a single piece of evidence. At a bare minimum we are talking about 3 tapes, but more than that we are talking about MAME-like transitions presenting themselves in a high percentage of board transitions. I consider each and every transition with MAME-like behavior to be a further piece of evidence.  Only one such transition is needed to show the potential for MAME, but multiple transitions are needed to demonstrate high probability.

Again, I don't disagree the rest of the evidence is useful and provides context and speaks to credibility, but I absolutely do not for a second buy the notion that the MAME evidence is anything short of 100% damning as it sits (i.e. lacking a credible counter).  If you want to call it a single piece of evidence then no problem, it's a single piece of evidence that I am more than willing to see this or any other cheater convicted by while they have absolutely no credible explanation for it.

[Kewydee_17]

I know enough to know that a myriad of seemingly plausible explanations, either real or imagined, can be given to explain why Billy Mitchell's gameplay looks like MAME.

Go on then. Give us some.

If there are a "myriad" of reasons it shouldn't take long to post half a dozen or so.

[Raven]

Raven, before there was the board drawing evidence for MAME, people in the Donkey Kong community already were suspicious. There was evidence before all of this. There was the board swap, and the super high risky play that would mean certain death for any other player.

I've looked at much more material than I've alluded to in my posts, where much of it appears to be white noise resulting from the KoK movie and personal rivalries. The Twin Galaxies dispute thread about Billy Mitchell's 1,062,800 point Donkey Kong score is a prime example of this, where it quickly became a train wreck after the MAME evidence was posted. To keep things simple, I've opted to start with the present and work my way backwards in time.

I also have to strongly disagree that the MAME evidence is a single piece of evidence. At a bare minimum we are talking about 3 tapes, but more than that we are talking about MAME-like transitions presenting themselves in a high percentage of board transitions. I consider each and every transition with MAME-like behavior to be a further piece of evidence.  Only one such transition is needed to show the potential for MAME, but multiple transitions are needed to demonstrate high probability.

In this case, I should have chosen my words more carefully. A more apt description would be a certain type (not piece) of evidence. No doubt, MAME is a complex subject, one which I mostly understand, but other than simply comparing results as they've been presented, I'm not fully qualified to call them conclusive proof.

In my opinion, the preponderance of the evidence, including that which I've discovered on my own, indicates a very high probability of guilt, where MAME alone might constitute a 70% probability of guilt in my eyes. At this point in time, having started out at 50% either way, I would now estimate the probability of guilt being 90% or higher. And that's excluding witness statements, except those from Billy Mitchell himself, largely because everybody seems to be pointing fingers at everybody else.

Evidence aside, one thing that stands out to me is that the classic arcade gaming community seems to be very fractured and hostile. Considering the fact that video game cheating appears to be rampant, I can't say I blame anyone for being suspicious and perhaps even angry. Every good story needs a villan, and guilty or innocent, Billy Mitchell seems to be fulfilling that role to perfection. It's just sad knowing that video games exist for people to enjoy, but instead they have become a vehicle for open conflict. Personally, I could care less about some number on a screen, and if someone beat my score to a pulp, I'd be the first to shake their hand, as long as they did it honestly.

Go on then. Give us some.

If there are a "myriad" of reasons it shouldn't take long to post half a dozen or so.

Sorry, I'm not biting. This isn't my first rodeo, and I've played that game before. I've said my peace, take it or leave it.

[Sqrlmonger]

I know enough to know that a myriad of seemingly plausible explanations, either real or imagined, can be given to explain why Billy Mitchell's gameplay looks like MAME.

Go on then. Give us some.

If there are a "myriad" of reasons it shouldn't take long to post half a dozen or so.

To avoid the confrontation. Raven is stating knowledge that such explanations are possible, not knowledge of specific explanations.

Or at least that is what I took from it.

Unfortunately, if this is the case it means the statement has no factual relevance to the discussion for the simple reason that a possible explanation, even if we grant the assertion that such exists, is not relevant.  Only what was actually done to create the video is relevant.

[Sqrlmonger]

I just wanted to add this as an example of how I have been analyzing the MAME evidence.


NOTE: The y-axis of the graph is on a logarithmic scale (if anyone is unsure what this means read here).

The graph above demonstrates the probabilities (as inverses, which I find is a more human relaetable format) involved in a single game worth of MAME transitions.  To make the analysis I had to assume the probability that an artifact resulting from the capture process would generate MAME like behaviors. In this case the graph presents 10%, 20%, and 30%, but I have a spreadsheet showing probabilities for 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% as well.  I think myself, and those who know far more than myself, realize that 30% is a very generous likelihood that the confluence of factors necessary would make a normal arcade transition appear MAME-like. This is particularly true given the fact that it ignores the odds of such stupendous coincidence in the first place.  Nevertheless, my spreadsheet analysis accounts for the possibility of further developments on this front.

I will leave the graph for others to draw their own conclusions, I will just note the following two examples of other highly improbable events:

• Winning the Power Ball Lottery Jackpot - 1 in 175,000,000
• 13 Loci DNA Match with a random person - 1 in 421,000,000,000,000

PS - Apologies for not making the y-axis in scientific notation, I felt it was important for impact that people really see how big these numbers are.

Edit: Oh I also wanted to stress that the graphs are already making the assumption that Billy can demonstrate a method by which an arcade transition can be made to look like a MAME transition.  This is why the lower end of the graph has upward tails, because there is also improbability in a low probability event not happening at all over 84 transititions (I might be off in my number there, but I can easily adjust my analysis as needed).  Again, the tails at the lower end of the chart are because even a low 10%-30% probability event should occur a couple of times when given 84 chances.

[Sqrlmonger]

I just realized I'm at least off by 1 potential transition because the initial load of the first level is a transition plus 4 boards over 21 levels leading into the first board on 22 as the kill screen. 

Can someone confirm that what I have described above is correct?  I think I need to consider 85 possible transitions, not 84, is that wrong? 

Just goes to show, my expertise is not in DK, so any help is appreciated. 

Also to Xelnia/Jeremy Young, since you are the one with the expertise and you have analyzed the games extensively can you tell me how many transitions in a given game exhibit MAME-like behavior in your analysis? 

Thanks

edit: Just wanted to note that since my being off by 1 makes the odds harder to explain away and not easier I'm not going to bother with updated graph for now unless there is interest in it.

[Kewydee_17]

Fair enough Raven, I won't press you again.

I wanted to know of the myriad ways because that could have brought many more scores on many arcade games into question. That seems important enough to seek more info

If it were possible to easily and in many different ways fake output between genuine arcade output and mame output, frame by frame, then who knows how many other arcade scores could be dubious?

You could shake the gaming world with your revelations.

[Raven]

Fair enough Raven, I won't press you again.

I wanted to know of the myriad ways because that could have brought many more scores on many arcade games into question. That seems important enough to seek more info

If it were possible to easily and in many different ways fake output between genuine arcade output and mame output, frame by frame, then who knows how many other arcade scores could be dubious?

You could shake the gaming world with your revelations.

The thing is, I have no specific revelations to make, at least none which are specific to the world of gaming. Believe me, I'm not one to withold important information, and every time I find something I deem to be of some importance, I reveal it openly. I'm simply not fond of the idea of keeping secrets, unless it's necessary to prevent someone from being harmed, etc.

It's just that I've been around long enough to know that things of a technical nature can become... complicated. For example, you might recall seeing some recent Billy Mitchell defense claims of a technical nature made on behalf of Robert Childs, which didn't seem to make much sense. Honestly, they were so long and rambling that I could barely make out exactly what their assertions were. However, my electronics experience did help me to pick up on enough clues to regard most of it as nonsense.

Otherwise, I firmly believe that anything can be faked. The trick is making it more trouble than it's worth.

[Shane_NC]

Guys, ffs stop with the hostility. Raven is trying to HELP get to the truth, and HAS DONE A SHITLOAD of work on his own time to facilitate that end. You would only be hurting the entire endevour by bickering about inconsequential shit. I personally want to thank Raven for all that he has done, and hopefully he will not be discouraged to continue aiding us all in trying to find the truth, whatever that is.

Thanks a lot Raven, you are a blessing.

-Shane from North Carolina

[Raven]

The Billy Mitchell 1,050,200 score video does appear to have been spliced, in addition to containing distinct MAME characteristics. To confirm the sound anomalies reported by Apollo Legend, I exported the audio from the video to an mp3 file, then used Audacity to create an audio spectrogram. Note the gap followed by an overlap, which is indicative of a splice point.

Well the 747,400 was at the end of the barrel board, the stacked Kong’s next, then rivers start with same score of course. it then backed up to the end of the barrel board again. No reason the score would change. It did look pretty crazy at first but it’s already been shown the original record didn’t have it.

When I got the tape in Jan. '08, I had the VHS recording transferred to DVD, but it spanned over 2 discs.  It's possible the anomaly happened at the end of disc 1/beginning of disc 2 if this was uploaded from those discs.

This is a plausible explanation. I went back and checked again, except this time I expanded the scope of my frame by frame video analysis to include several seconds on either end of the segment in question. Just before the barrel screen ends, the score changes from 744,200 to 747,400 (score + bonus), and the details appear to be consistent with a "glitch" rather than an intentional splice.

I've been following the Billy Mitchell 1,062,800 dispute thread over at Twin Galaxies, where the Apollo Legend audio splice "evidence" has cropped up again. In the interest of being fair, it should be pointed out that the splice theory was debunked a week ago. The audio gaps and overlapping frames appear to be the result of a digital transfer, nothing more.

[Mary McManus]

$6000 video equipment used to "examine"  the tap" eh?! Love the LED driven digit readout. Nothing says 21st century than an LED driven numeric readout.

The frame by frame shot using what appears to be an archaic piece of equipment to begin with, seems absolutely useless when illustrating the load states MAME or ARCADE.

 Plus the jargon and terminology used "interlaced" -240p "progressive" "RGB to NTSC" "quanzie matrix structure' ect..... is sure to confuse any layman involved.

The whole case just seems to rest on how "expensive"  the equipment used in the annylisis was.
 That equipment may have cost $6000 30+ years ago, but it's probably worth $60 now and like I said,  seems to incapable of showing the load states.

Maybe TG will use a wind up victrola for the audio examination?
 TG has failed again with thier defense but it doesn't matter. Too Big to fail.

[maximumsteve]

"I suppose in a way you have to admire the brass balls of Billy and Robert Childs in trying to eke out a last dollar or two from this whole sorry saga:
It might be worth going to this if you're in Florida this weekend, because something tells me it may be the last chance to see the great man play in public.

Tick, tock." From Spaceman....

I have not been on here in a little while, because unlike some who live and breathe on this forum 24/7, I have a life and work, etc.. however I did notice this quote from Spaceman I put up first in this post , and as far as this event goes, You could NOT BE MORE OFF BASE AND WRONG. This is MY event. Robert owns the building that facilitates it, and Bill shows up to it, with no appearance fee for reference, as he lives local to it. I promote, advertise, and host Retro Arcade Night. We do this event once every couple months, and the PROFIT, if any, that is made from the event always goes to a local cause or charity, such as late last year, as an example, We asked people to bring Water, and non-perishable goods for the local area and Puerto Rico after Hurricane Irma, in addition to any profit made going to charity related with that cause.  This event's funds will go to the GO Fund and other charities related with the Marjory Stoneman Douglas situation and tragedy that we are all trying to recover from in South Florida. So think or ask about something before you assume or judge what an event is for.

[WCopeland]

because unlike some who live and breathe on this forum 24/7, I have a life and work, etc..

Totally unnecessary.

[Mary McManus]

Even with a piece of video equipment that cost several thousands of dollars, they STILL cannot  confirm or deny (that's whole the plan in case your wondering ) if the tape loads the graphics like MAME or arcade.

 I don't care if the machine cost $6,000,000,000, from what I've seen, this "VERY EXPENSIVE" equipment is still incapable of confirming MAME loads or Arcade loads therefore the very fine, expensive piece of equipment is totally useless.

 If anything it raises more suspicions because there are NO load states to be observed in any way shape or form.

[QAOP Spaceman]

as far as this event goes, You could NOT BE MORE OFF BASE AND WRONG. This is MY event.

I stand corrected. I take my hat off to anyone who tries to encourage people to give classic gaming a try, and kudos to you for donating profits to people less fortunate than yourself.

So think or ask about something before you assume or judge what an event is for.

Chastened as I am, I stand by my brass balls remark, at least in terms of showing up in public.

And you might want to 'think or ask' more about the people you ask to help promote your events. I don't think Lance Armstrong gets invited to compere many cycling events these days.