Lvl 5 Spring 100 board analyisis

[Adam_Mon]

Hey guys,

The following are stats from a x100 board analysis of the spring/ elevator board (LVL 5)
The stats are garnered from a save state initiated from the board before the actuall spring board began (to eliminate "seeding?" <-- that thing that potentially gives the same rng result each time)
I've double checked the math however mistakes might still exsist so if you spot anything untoward please let me know

The results reflect the average score and chance of getting delayed by fireballs at certain parts of the board ect..
The specific data gathered is listed below, as well as some notes at the bottom of the page.

The data looked at:

* SCORE
* Fireball Decending Chance.
* Delayed Bottom Prize Chance.
* Delayed Mid Prize Chance.
* Left Side VS Right Side FInal Ladder Climbs.
* Forced "Low road?" aka "Going the long way around" (after grabing the 1st prize the fireball decends, cuts you off from returning to the left and forces you to continue right along the bottom of the board).









**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************
                                                          100 BOARD ANALYISIS FOR SPRINGS/ ELEVATORS (LVL 5+)
**********************************************************************************************************************************************************************

Code: [Select]


||        SCORE      ||  Fireball Decend as Board Started?  ||  Delay Bottom Prize?  ||  Delay Mid Prize? || Left Side vs Right Side Finish? || Forced to go Low Road?

(1)  7500                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(2)  7700                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        R
(3)  8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L                                           
(4)  7900                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(5)  8500                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(6)  8300                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        R
(7)  7800                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(8)  8500                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(9)  8400                                  Y                               Y                    N                        R
(10) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(10) 8300                                  N                               N                    Y                        R
(12) 8400                                  Y                               Y                    N                        R
(13) 7900                                 N/A                             N/A                  N/A                       R                                 Y
(14) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(15) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(16) 8000                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(17) 7600                                 N/A                             N/A                  N/A                       L                                 Y
(18) 8400                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(19) 8200                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(20) 8400                                  N                               N                    Y                        R
(21) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(22) 7900                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(23) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        R
(24) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        R
(25) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(26) 7700                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(27) 8000                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(28) 7800                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(29) 7900                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(30) 7800                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(31) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        R
(32) 7800                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(33) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(34) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L 
(35) 7700                                 N/A                             N/A                  N/A                       L                                 Y
(36) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(37) 7800                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(38) 7800                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(39) 7800                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(40) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        R                       
(41) 8400                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(42) 8700                                  N                               N                    N                        R
(43) 7800                                 N/A                             N/A                  N/A                       L                                 Y
(44) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(45) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(46) 8700                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(47) 7800                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(48) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(49) 7700                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(50) 8100                                  N                               N                    Y                        R
(51) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(52) 8400                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(53) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        R
(54) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(55) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        R
(56) 8400                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(57) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(58) 8300                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(59) 8700                                  N                               N                    N                        R
(60) 8400                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(61) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(62) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(63) 8500                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(64) 8000                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(65) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(66) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(67) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(68) 7900                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(69) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(70) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(71) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(72) 8700                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(73) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(74) 8400                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(75) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(76) 7900                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(77) 7700                                 N/A                             N/A                  N/A                       L                                  Y
(78) 8800                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(79) 8600                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(80) 8000                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(81) 8500                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(82) 8700                                  N                               N                    N                        R
(83) 8300                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(84) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(85) 8200                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(86) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(87) 8300                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(88) 8100                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(89) 8200                                  N                               N                    Y                        R
(90) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(91) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(92) 8500                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(93) 7900                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(94) 8100                                  Y                               Y                    N                        L
(95) 8300                                  Y                               Y                    Y                        L
(96) 8600                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(97) 8400                                  N                               N                    N                        L
(98) 8500                                  Y                               Y                    N                        R
(99) 8500                                  N                               N                    Y                        L
(100)8000                                  N                               N                    Y                        L



***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************
RESULTS
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************


AVERAGE SCORE  =  8177

LOWEST SCORE   =  7500

HIGHEST SCORE  =  8800




Did the fireball decend as the board started? = 66/100 (66%) // This number increase to 71/100 (71%) if we include the 5 boards that the fireball forced us to go "Long way around".

We were delayed from grabbing the Bottom Prize = 66/100 (66%)

We were delayed AFTER grabbing the Mid left Prize = 51/100 (51%)

We were forced to go "Long way around" = 5/100 (5%)

AVERAGE SCORE for "Long way around" = 7740 (only 5 boards though)

Left Vs Right final ladder climbs = (L= 81) Vs (R= 19)


***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************
TECHNIQUE/ METHODS USED
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************



Collect all 3 prizes

Include "Top Shelf"

Incorporate "Spring Leeches" (when possible) during girder transitions on all 3 top right girders (where top right prize is located)

Finish board from right side (when possible)

"Non-Visual Manouvering" The technique of manouvering JM trough use of muscle memory or peripheral vision while focusing main visual focus on the left side of the board (the point where the springs enter and make first bounce),
this is done while still controlling JM on the right side of the board.


************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

I had intended to release a video tutorial with these stats specifically showing the method of how to complete the springs using "Non-Visual Manouvering"
I'll probably get around to it if there is interest.
 

[f_symbols]

this is awesome sir, ty for doing it.  I'm rather surprised with how little the low road actually penalizes the score; how

[Adam_Mon]

I had intended to release a video tutorial with these stats specifically showing the method of how to complete the springs using "Non-Visual Manouvering"
I'll probably get around to it if there is interest.

Due to the overwhelming response to the thread ...

I decided to cut the tutorial i was working on to the bare minimum.

 I focused on only a few aspects of the spring board instead, since its aimed at already advanced players there was no need to include the vast majority of it.
The video mainly looks at "non visual maneuvering" and how to complete the board quickly
and effectively with a goal of averaging 8k approx over a full game.

Using the methods described in the video I have had multiple 9000+ practice boards, the
highest being 9800 (I've yet to crack 10k wich will require an almost flawless run +
persistant freezer) <-- persistant freezers were also excluded from the vid since this tactic is more about maintaining a steady average instead of hunting the more elusive massive scores on the springs.

I'll probably add on to it if need be.
Cheers.

Also,  apologies if I am too difficult to understand, If I am please let me know and I will include subtitles.
(Yes the sound you are hearing is me and not some industrial machinery being decommissioned     )

! No longer available

[xelnia]

OMG HE SPEAKS 

Great stuff mate. I'm always a little surprised at how many people avoid the relatively low-risk, free points on this board...new players and experienced players alike. Like every other board it's a game of averages so you're going to have shitty boards occasionally, but increasing your spring average by 500 points adds 8,500 points to score over a full game...a 1,000 point increase in average will add 17,000! Why are people avoiding these points? >.<

[stella_blue]

Include subtitles, please.   

I kid you!  I like to kid the elite spring masters!

All joking aside, I plan to spend some time familiarizing myself with your approach.  Focusing on the springs while maneuvering Jumpman via "muscle memory" will necessitate a radical departure from my current method, particularly on the right side of the board.  Given the number of spring deaths I've suffered over the past 6 months, that may not be a bad thing.

EDIT:  I reserve the right to employ the "stella jump" instead of the top shelf jump when the opportunity presents itself.

[tilt]

I ran a much shorter set of data today (only 30 trials) and I thought it would be interesting to show a different player's perspective on this


The BOOST category is how many points are earned over the "no 3rd prize" average by the end of the game.  This is raw data, I didn't attempt to yolo anything or throw out unfortunate screens, so this should be a somewhat accurate representation.  I will likely add more data to this over the next few days, so I will update this when I get 100 trials in each category. 

But anyways, the essence of what I have found anyways is that the 3rd prize is absolutely worth it to get, even for a 1.1m odd game.  However, I believe that it is not really necessary to do the "quick grab" at the beginning.  You gain yourself 3-4k more points doing it, which is not really worth the risk when you can grab the 3rd prize for an almost 10k score bonus over the whole game.  Unless you are going for a score to break past 1.15+, I think most people who are looking to dabble with this strategy should wait at the start.

Keep in mind that I am not 100% efficient on springs, so your luck/skill may make these averages differ a bit.  This is the reason why I really need 100 trials per category.  This data is enough to convince me to learn this.

[stella_blue]

The BOOST category is how many points are earned over the "no 3rd prize" average by the end of the game.

Based on your results, it appears that you are including Level 4-4 in your "boost" calculation.  Correct?

Keep in mind that I am not 100% efficient on springs, so your luck/skill may make these averages differ a bit.

Yeah, the final stages of the board will definitely skew the results.  You might consider removing them from the analysis entirely:

• Define the top of the ladder immediately to the right of safe spot #1 as the final destination
• Establish a baseline value of 6900-7100 (the bonus timer, depending on whether the top shelf jump is used)
• The baseline assumes 0 points collected along the way (no leeching or prizes)
• Run a series of trials using whatever approach you prefer, and compare the results (points + bonus) to the baseline

[tilt]

The BOOST category is how many points are earned over the "no 3rd prize" average by the end of the game.

Based on your results, it appears that you are including Level 4-4 in your "boost" calculation.  Correct?

This is correct.  I considered just doing the 17 5+ springs, but I figured that since the strategy is almost identical (minus the fireball speed differences), it is fair to have 4-4 added in.

Yeah, the final stages of the board will definitely skew the results.  You might consider removing them from the analysis entirely:

• Define the top of the ladder immediately to the right of safe spot #1 as the final destination
• Establish a baseline value of 6900-7100 (the bonus timer, depending on whether the top shelf jump is used)
• The baseline assumes 0 points collected along the way (no leeching or prizes)
• Run a series of trials using whatever approach you prefer, and compare the results (points + bonus) to the baseline

Yeah, it might be smart to completely re-run the trails with the boards broken up into different sections.  For instances, as I think you are getting at, I could take an average of the bonus timer once mario jumps off of the second elevator on the platform and compare the averages from waiting versus the quick grab.  I could then repeat this with the second portion of the board, or take a different kind of average.  Either way, I think I will come to the same conclusion on what makes the most sense for my current level of play.  Thanks for the feedback!

[Adam_Mon]

Great stuff!

this type of disscusion makes it "move in my pants" as jeremey would say 
keep us updated on the data collection/ progress.

[xelnia]

But anyways, the essence of what I have found anyways is that the 3rd prize is absolutely worth it to get, even for a 1.1m odd game.  However, I believe that it is not really necessary to do the "quick grab" at the beginning.  You gain yourself 3-4k more points doing it, which is not really worth the risk when you can grab the 3rd prize for an almost 10k score bonus over the whole game.  Unless you are going for a score to break past 1.15+, I think most people who are looking to dabble with this strategy should wait at the start.

This what I never understood about how different people approach the springs, especially certain top players. The entire board is 100% execution. Speaking generally, if you're confident in your execution there is no reason to avoid any points on this board. Quick grab, 3rd prize...all of it should be fair game. The only thing RNG is going to affect is how quickly you can from Point A to Point B and there is no reasonable amount of bad luck that will prevent you from actually finishing the board.

It's like leeching Kong at the end of a rivet with all the fireballs on the left side. Everyone who is not just running boards does it because it's free points and essentially zero-risk. Actually, it IS zero-risk, because the only way to die is for the player to screw something up...just like on the springs.

[Barra]

Wayyyyy smaller margin for error on getting the purse vs. leeching kong.....equals bigger risk in my book.
Leeching kong if you screw up, you either miss a few points, or jump/walk into Kong. But you shouldn't be pressing that direction anyway (I used to do this, a lot)

A lot of players are scared of the springs and want to get past them as soon as possible 
Plus it adds time to a game. And as Tanner mentioned its only 10k which really isn't much unless you're elite . Oh wait whats the Riley smiley? 

I don't think I've ever gotten the purse on L4+. Probably never will. Pauline, you don't need it

Lit

[tilt]

The deal with the quick grab in the beginning is that it is a matter of perception.  Believe it or not, if you "read" the fireball incorrectly during the initial jump, you will almost certainly reach a point of no return.  Now, if you examine the fireball movement patterns before your jump, you can attempt to guess how the fireball will react when you jump off the platform.  However, for just gaining a decent amount of points while keeping risk to a minimum, I think no quick grab is the way to go for early learning of the optimal elevator strategy.

[YesAffinity]

I can't remember the last time that I took the low road.  I'm talking 0% in true gameplay.  In what situations did the low road become necessary?  Or possibly there are certain situations that the low road is beneficial, from a points standpoint?

[Adam_Mon]

I can't remember the last time that I took the low road.  I'm talking 0% in true gameplay.  In what situations did the low road become necessary?  Or possibly there are certain situations that the low road is beneficial, from a points standpoint?

The low road is purley used as an evassive manouver (last resort)..lets say as soon as the board starts you jump straight across to grab the bottom prize but the fireball has rapidly shot down the left ladder just as you landed..after grabbing the prize the fireball has now effectivly cut you off from going left and is hot on your tail, so he may also kill you if you try to ascend the right ladder.

The only options left are to:

a) jump the fireball ...wich should never EVER be attempted on a spring board given the girders are tiny.

     or

b) Make use of the low road,... the low road is also 100% guranteed to be available in this scenario because as soon as the board starts if you were to hold right and jump over the necissary gaps you will always land on the same elevator platform for the low road, (depending on if the fireball blocks you of course)

So IMO low road is a last ditch effort to save a man from death in those situations where a fireball has almost clipped you after you landed and/or there is a strong chance he'll tag your foot if you attempt to climb.

(Note how you can always make the same elevator platform everytime by simply holding right and jumping, this means you have an escape from that above mentioned aggressive fireball if such an event were to happen)

! No longer available

[WCopeland]

The deal with the quick grab in the beginning is that it is a matter of perception.  Believe it or not, if you "read" the fireball incorrectly during the initial jump, you will almost certainly reach a point of no return.  Now, if you examine the fireball movement patterns before your jump, you can attempt to guess how the fireball will react when you jump off the platform.  However, for just gaining a decent amount of points while keeping risk to a minimum, I think no quick grab is the way to go for early learning of the optimal elevator strategy.

There is a new technique where you can jump onto the platform and backjump back onto the elevator if the fireball decides to come down in the ultra-tricky timing. It is frame perfect, and while I've got it down reasonably in practice I haven't demonstrated it in a real game yet.