Allen Off Event Poll/Coverage

[marky_d]

The time is nearing for this much anticipated Event. Who ya got, and why? 

[tudose]

brian...hes prepped

[xelnia]

Here are the results for all the online events in which both players have competed:

Event                                       Brian Allen   Allen Staal

Wildcard Rematch #2                           350,400       235,800
Wildcard Rematch #3 / Wildcard Qualifier #1   637,800       311,600
Wildcard Qualifier #2                         412,000       295,700
Wildcard Qualifier #3                         341,000       567,200
Donkey Kong Online Open 2014 #1               474,100       556,300
Donkey Kong Online Open 2014 #3               447,700       386,100
Donkey Kong Online Open 2014 #4               522,600       603,200
Donkey Kong Online Open 2014 #5               653,700       450,500
Donkey Kong Online Open 2014 #6               464,600       753,000
Donkey Kong Online Open 2015 #2               868,200       625,900
Donkey Kong Online Open 2015 #3               845,400       808,600
 
Win Total                                        7             4
Average Score                                 547,045       508,536
     

Brutally honest analysis of both players:

Not a huge difference in average score, and a large variance for both players. Both players have been "hot" in recent events, but neither of them are consistent high-scorers. Brian has only been save-stating L4 barrel board bottom hammers for some reason and unless he's been practicing offline there's no reason to think he's capable of taking a game deep at anything higher than 875k pace. Allen is lucky to maintain an 855k pace, although he did have a 600k game at 888k pace recently. Both players are easily flustered and dismissive when the competition gets heated. Allen values TG recognition much more than Brian (as evidenced by his attempts to create all the shitty TG tracks), but Brian values his overall reputation as a skilled gamer more than Allen. Brian will hate losing more than Allen will enjoy winning (Brian hates most things anyway).

It was suggested recently that if Brian puts up 700k on the the first day that he'll essentially have the competition locked up, as this would immediately put intense pressure on Allen. However, a 700k score would be his 3rd highest score ever. In fact, I believe Allen has more games over 600k than Brian does. Brian, unsurprisingly, has complained about the start time of the competition, but with a 10 day competition there is more than enough time for both players.

Ultimately, the stakes are higher for Brian than they are for Allen. This gives him an incentive to come up with an excuse to bail out (not unheard of). Brian is the better overall player and has a winning record against Allen. Allen, with his notorious lack of fundamental DK skills, will need to luck into a big first man in order to get into the zone he needs to go deep. Even then, Allen might only score 860k.

My prediction: BA wins, but JCB beats them both.

[anningmay]

I think that Allen should change his last name to Brian. It'll make this event much easier to follow 

[WCopeland]

If I didn't think it was possible for Allen to win I wouldn't have hosted the Event. With that in mind, I've been disappointed with Allen's practice and commitment lately. Brian has quietly been working to get his gameplay to a point that it's leagues ahead of Allen, and as a result, I definitely think he's favored to win.

With that in mind, I have no choice but to vote for Brian Allen.

[marky_d]

I've been disappointed with Allen's practice and commitment lately. Brian has quietly been working to get his gameplay to a point that it's leagues ahead of Allen, and as a result, I definitely think he's favored to win.

I agree. I still think the player who plays early, often, and puts up a score over 700k first will have a huge advantage. Neither one of these seasoned competitors handle chasing an established score well, although I'd say Allen is much worse in that department...but, I don't know how that scenario is gonna play out so I have to work with the facts before me, much of which has already been pointed out in this thread. Vote cast for Brian Allen (BEAst)

[ChrisP]

It has been said, but it's really worth echoing that "early score advantage" is everything in these Allen Offs. Keep them both below 500K and they'll hold their heads together, but as soon as one gets over 700K, or even a high 600, the pressure is going to be hard for the other to overcome. Allen is more vocal and open about the pressure, but rest assured, Brian feels it too, and he will certainly feel it at an all-time high, with these stakes, should Allen take a big and early lead.

As for whether that will happen, I really don't try to predict Allen's performance, even in the shortest term. Long ago, before he got his first kill screen, I said (to paraphrase) "Allen could easily get his first kill screen tomorrow, or easily not get it until three years from tomorrow." You just never know what you're going to get. He's the most consistently inconsistent player in the game. No matter what I see from him in terms of "trends," I have learned never to feel that he's "due" for anything.

The way of Allen is for him to not be able to crack 400K in the course of twenty games, then suddenly get four 650K+ games in a row, only to immediately collapse into hours upon hours of 200K shit-fests.

So if there's early pressure, it's going to be rough going for him, but he doesn't ALWAYS buckle. Let's not forget that magical moment during the very first DK Wildcard Rematch, when he smashed his camera, screamed "I CAHN'T DO IT!!!" and then buckled down, shut his mouth, and did it.

Regardless, I'm still going with Brian Allen.

[Barra]

Brutally honest analysis of both players:

Not a huge difference in average score, and a large variance for both players. Both players have been "hot" in recent events, but neither of them are consistent high-scorers. Brian has only been save-stating L4 barrel board bottom hammers for some reason and unless he's been practicing offline there's no reason to think he's capable of taking a game deep at anything higher than 875k pace. Allen is lucky to maintain an 855k pace, although he did have a 600k game at 888k pace recently. Both players are easily flustered and dismissive when the competition gets heated. Allen values TG recognition much more than Brian (as evidenced by his attempts to create all the shitty TG tracks), but Brian values his overall reputation as a skilled gamer more than Allen. Brian will hate losing more than Allen will enjoy winning (Brian hates most things anyway).

It was suggested recently that if Brian puts up 700k on the the first day that he'll essentially have the competition locked up, as this would immediately put intense pressure on Allen. However, a 700k score would be his 3rd highest score ever. In fact, I believe Allen has more games over 600k than Brian does. Brian, unsurprisingly, has complained about the start time of the competition, but with a 10 day competition there is more than enough time for both players.

Ultimately, the stakes are higher for Brian than they are for Allen. This gives him an incentive to come up with an excuse to bail out (not unheard of). Brian is the better overall player and has a winning record against Allen. Allen, with his notorious lack of fundamental DK skills, will need to luck into a big first man in order to get into the zone he needs to go deep. Even then, Allen might only score 860k.

My prediction: BA wins, but JCB beats them both.

This is the most amazing thing I've ever read.

[BBH]

all this in-depth analysis is killing me rofl

[Jonesy]

Well, after a bad run in recent weeks I just watched Allen put up a relatively easy 521k, and if he'd not lost it a 600+ game was easily on the cards. Not only that, his first kill screen anniversary is around this time and we all know he's capable of a good game when he get's down to it.

So, for the above reasons and the fact I still have faith, I vote Michael Caine

Although I do expect an overdose of arse cocks, maggots and faggots.

[HectorTelloc]

I'm voting for Brian, I love Allen, but I feel his ego has grown out of control since Billy Mitchell called him, I'm not falling for him trying to be friendly now that the event is nearing. Go Brian!

[aarontruitt]

Alen is my make, but Brain has the skills... It will really come down to who gets the most Freebie Wiebe's. Since Allen's machine is Chinese and Brian plays on MAME (not to mention his rigorous DK Workouts), I have to vote for Brian. 

[xelnia]

7.5 hours in and neither player has streamed. Who will be the first to step up to the plate?

   or  ?

ಠ‿ಠ

[xelnia]

Almost 19 hours in:

  533,900
112,800

[xelnia]

After 21 hours:

  666,400
360,400