12 firefoxes with 2 hammers

[f_symbols]

thanks guys!

[VON]

Point for discussion (it's been discussed before): if you have all the fireballs isolated on the left side after the first hammer, is it better to grab the top hammer or not?  That is debatable. 

That it is.  I always dream big and go for the hammer, even though I'm pretty certain a test of this situation over 100 trials would reveal the hammer averages less points than just humping it out.

1000 timer seconds equates to approximately 1400 points of leaching (lvl 5+), so unless the hammer yields a few big smashes, points are being lost. 

[ChrisP]

I've thought about this before but never really worked on it, and Hank's video was eye-opening to say the least.

It would seem that a big omni-smash with the bottom hammer makes leeching, and skipping the top hammer entirely, the right thing to do! Or at least not-the-wrong thing to do.

I'm surprised this isn't the way people play it more often. Though, let's be honest, what's more fun - chasing and smashing firefoxes or taunting Kong?

[stella_blue]

1000 timer seconds equates to approximately 1400 points of leaching (lvl 5+), so unless the hammer yields a few big smashes, points are being lost.

Especially when one considers the "revised" probabilities of 300, 500 and 800 point smashes on the rivet stage.

[stella_blue]

Since someone is bound to ask, I should link to the original CAGDC thread that discusses these "new" probabilities.  18 months later, it's still an interesting and informative read.

http://www.classicarcadegaming.com/forums/index.php?topic=4164.0

[hchien]

I wouldn't draw any conclusions from those videos alone.  Like I said, they were in my first few months of playing when I had no idea what I was doing.

I am glad that this has cast a shadow of doubt in some people's minds.  We often blindly follow what everyone else is doing without stopping to think if this is the right thing to do.  I don't think there is a big difference between the 2 on average.  Certainly not more than a few hundred points.  Given the probability distribution of points of fireball smashes, the fact that there are really only 3 fireballs in play (you will pretty much never smash the 2 freezers), and that you need to smash about 3 just to break even, I'd call it a draw.

These days I do find myself grabbing the top hammer more often.  Really it depends on my mood.

It is definitely sexier to wield a mighty hammer than to hump a gorilla's leg.   So if you're playing DK to get laid, you know what to do.

[VON]

It is definitely sexier to wield a mighty hammer than to hump a gorilla's leg.   So if you're playing DK to get laid, you know what to do.

This is, so far, my favorite thing said on these forums.

[up2ng]

I just reviewed that old thread about fireball smash probabilities and realized that no one ever completed the task of updating the probabilities based on the last wrinkle that was found in the code regarding fireball speeds on the various internal difficulty levels.  It would be nice to know if this does or does not affect the numbers at all and whether it makes them "better" or "worse" than the 3:2:1 ratio that was first mentioned.

In general, I do believe that with that board setup (2nd rivet from the top on the right remains, all firefoxes are trapped on the top left side, Jumpman is taunting Kong on the right side), getting 3 smashes is pretty much exactly break even.  This assumes that you leave exactly enough time for your hammer to expire before clearing the screen at the last possible moment.  This is because the hammer lasts for exactly 9 Timer ticks on Level 4+ AND there is additional time wasted (inefficiency) by running from the bottom of the ladder to the middle of the screen where the hammer is -- somewhere in the range of 1 more Timer tick.  At my taunting ratio of 10 jumps per 8 Timer ticks, we're talking about giving up about 12.5 - 13 jumps in order to grab the hammer under these exact conditions.  That's 1300 points given up which is almost precisely what we're going to find is the expected value of 3 smashes.  Furthermore, with the knowledge that the chances to smash the two freezers over there is extremely low, and the relatively common screwing of a non-freezer climbing the far ladder and also avoiding being smashed, I'm thinking more and more that the expected number of smashes in this setup is less than 3.  (By the way, this opportunity cost is independent of the level -- the speed of the Timer does not matter since the hammer always lasts for the same amount of real time and you can always get the same amount of taunting points during that real time.)

I have a couple of ideas for creating slightly alternate situations -- let's hear your thoughts on these.  First, who says you must time it so that you will end the screen exactly when the hammer expires?  What if you intentionally grab the hammer "late" and use up only half of your hammer time (4 or 5 Timer ticks of hammer time)?  Now you're only giving up 600 - 700 taunting points and you'll have just enough time to go to the left, get some smashes and then you'd need to almost immediately turn around and finish the stage.  Your expected number of smashes with this strategy is obviously slightly less, but you might be able to time it so that even just TWO smashes is now profitable...  Secondly, what if, while taunting, you quickly pause and drop a toe down the ladder and try to get the freezer to drop down and go into it's pattern of climbing down, pausing at the bottom of the ladder and then climbing back up and pausing again at the top of the ladder IF the fireball's position is higher than or equal to jumpman's position, you make sure that you are in the air when it climbs back up (do some more taunting) and then very shortly thereafter you are going down and going for the hammer.  The idea is that the freezer has not had a chance to go back into its freeze mode pattern yet and can now be smashed.  My gut tells me that this would not be a profitable move on average, but it might be worth thinking about.

In addition, even a slight modification on the overall scenario might make a difference.  Suppose 4 fireballs are trapped on the top left, but you have 1 fireball trapped on the top right -- if the one on the right side is a freezer this could change things since it IS possible to reach across the gap and smash a freezer sitting at the bottom of the ladder on the right side, but not on the left side (very wierd, but true in my experience).  This might increase the expected number of smashes to more than 3 for that scenario.

Lastly, I've been thinking more and more that grabbing a hammer IN GENERAL loses points if a significant amount of efficiency is lost in the process -- and the length of the delay is probably less than we'd think.  This goes for all hammers on the rivet and conveyor screens.  The obvious example is when you're using a star pattern on the rivet screen and you might be able to race up the right side to unplug the last two rivets and end the screen very quickly for a big Timer bonus, but in instead you stick with the star pattern, try to go up the middle ladder and are delayed by perhaps 10 - 15 Timer ticks before actually getting a chance to grab the hammer.  Now, having this hammer in your hand is generally inefficient as well since you have to sit around and wait for it to expire before you can climb up for the last rivet -- perhaps another 3 or 4 Timer ticks lost.  Now, we're talking about needing pretty massive numbers of smashes with the hammer to compensate for a relatively typical delay.  On the other hand, in addition to the smashes, some percentage of the time (no where near 100%) you'll have an opportunity to taunt out the screen, which "adds" to your Timer bonus, sometimes 1000 points or more.  So, how much delay makes the decision unprofitable is sort of unclear.

I've been pretty unhappy lately with my rivet averages and I think I might start looking more and more for situations where I can skip the hammer.

[stella_blue]

First, who says you must time it so that you will end the screen exactly when the hammer expires?  What if you intentionally grab the hammer "late" and use up only half of your hammer time (4 or 5 Timer ticks of hammer time)?  Now you're only giving up 600 - 700 taunting points and you'll have just enough time to go to the left, get some smashes and then you'd need to almost immediately turn around and finish the stage.  Your expected number of smashes with this strategy is obviously slightly less, but you might be able to time it so that even just TWO smashes is now profitable...

That's exactly what I've started doing recently, Dean.  In the setup you describe, I've found that I typically get a couple of smashes early, and spend the remainder of the hammer cycle waiting for another firefox to descend the leftmost ladder.  Sometimes it does, but more often than not stays outside the hammer's striking range.  Near the end of the hammer cycle, I dash to the right, hoping to pick off a spawner just before clearing the final rivet.

By taking the middle hammer late, I get in a few extra taunting jumps, I still get the early smashes in the cycle, and I still have a shot at the spawner.  What I've eliminated is the intermediate downtime.

I've been pretty unhappy lately with my rivet averages and I think I might start looking more and more for situations where I can skip the hammer.

You and me both.

[marinomitch13]

Yeah, Dean, I have also often wondered about trying to mess with the freezing cycle in that situation. I tried dipping a toe down when I first started playing DK, but never the 'make sure you are in the air' part -good call! I may have to tinker with this idea in a save state and see what numbers I can come up with.

[f_symbols]

I can't wait to pick your brain Dean, highly analytical to say the least. I hope someday I'll get that chance.  Who knew I'd learn so much already, thanks for recommending the thread Mitch!  You guys are great

[mikegmi2]

It's tough to talk analytical about problems that are mostly random.  Still, like poker, this is a problem you are trying to solve with incomplete information...and if we can calculate odds on every poker scenario, maybe we can come close on this DK scenario.

Without getting too technical and assigning odds of netting, for example 1500 points from the hammer option, like hitting that flush with the turn and river still to come...here's my simple take:

Rivet levels 1-3 I feel it is better to just keep jumping and leaching Kong points.  You have a 100% chance of earning the Kong points, and a completely random chance of earning any Smash points.  The time you give up to go grab the hammer is worth more on these early levels. May want to take a chance on the smashes on level 3 though...

Level 4, you can still earn a good amount of Kong points if you keep jumping...but not as much as levels 1-3...and I feel the 'point profit' threshold for grabbing the top hammer lies right around here at level 4 rivets.  It's tempting to just cash in the Kong points, but also tempting to grab the hammer and go for the smashes.  I think go for the smashes here.

Level 5 and up I feel it is best to keep jumping until around 600 left on the bonus timer...because then you essentially break even with a 300 and 500 smash (add 200 points for jumps after timer is 000), and profit anything better than that...but always go for the smashes when going for max score.

The right answer lies in the pace you are going for.  For 1M pace...just always keep jumping.  There's no need to run down, grab the hammer, and have something silly happen...get overanxious and run too far...falling through a rivet hole...run around too long and die from the timer running out (happened to me before, oops).

For WR or 1.1M pace...take the chance and run down with 500-600 left on the timer and try for 2-3-4 smashes...the risk/reward I believe is there for making it profitable to grab the hammer.  You can give up the 800-900 Kong points (door number 1) and cash in with (2 reasonable profitable scenarios) door number 2 (1 300 smash and 1 500/800 smash) or door number 3 (1 300 smash, 2 500 smashs, and 1 800 smash).

Truthfully, thinking of all the different outcomes from grabbing the hammer...I would think if the net profit threshold for chosing to grab the hammer was around 800-900 points, it would have to be better to always go for the hammer if you averaged everything out.  I mean, there are some 3000+ point smash scenarios in there.

For Level 5+ rivets, going for max score: Even though it's probably more complicated than my simple ramblings...the reward I believe is there if you simplify this down to a 3 option problem.  Knowing the door you picked is not the grand prize (door 1, Kong points all the way to 000 bonus timer), take away that door and pick from door 2 or door 3....it's always better to give up your original pick and switch to door 2 or door 3.  Your odds are then better for picking the grand prize.