Author Topic: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1  (Read 10656 times)

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Offline up2ng

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Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« on: July 02, 2013, 12:57:52 pm »
You are standing just to the left of the bottom hammer on a Level 5 barrel screen.  There is a single barrel rolling towards you, followed by some relatively short spacing (6 or 7 barrel widths of space), followed by two barrels which are directly on top of each other.  After this, all other barrels on the screen have approximately normal spacing between them.  There are currently 8 barrels already on the structure and Kong is holding a 9th barrel in his hands (he is currently standing upright with the barrel in his hands and is NOT throwing a wild barrel).  There are now two fireballs below you on the first girder, both of which are to the left of the broken ladder.  Assume your options carry equal risk.  Will you...

A)  Back jump the lead barrel, smash it, and proceed with your bottom hammer strategy?

OR

B)  Jump over the lead barrel, wait, then back jump the group of two barrels, smash them both and proceed with your bottom hammer strategy?

Explain.

[BONUS]  Does your answer change if the lead barrel is a blue barrel?  Why or why not?  Does your answer change if one of the two barrels in the group is a blue barrel?  Why or why not?
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Offline marinomitch13

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2013, 01:09:55 pm »
Question (also just wondering why no one does this in general): Can we forward jump the first barrel while grabbing the hammer and turn around and smash it (like most people do with the top hammer)?
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Offline mikegmi2

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2013, 01:32:40 pm »
Well, if it's a given that both options carry equal risk, I would probably jump the first barrel, wait, and backjump the group of 2 barrels, smash them both, and carry on with the bottom hammer smashing...especially if one of the 2 in the group was blue.  Kong will release another barrel right away, giving you a good chance to be able to smash it, and cover the loss of not smashing the lead single barrel.

If the lead barrel was blue, I would probably backjump that and guarantee the blue smash...simply for the chance of more points.  The chance for a 500 of 800 smash from the first barrel makes it the target for max points.  Although cool, backjumping 2 barrels at once only nets a profit of 300 points...which isn't worth missing out on the implied odds of netting a 500 or 800 point smash from the lead blue barrel...wait actually it's only better if you get the 800...because a 500 smash from the lead blue barrel is only a net 200 point profit above the norm, which is 100 points less than the 300 points profit gained from backjumping the 2 barrel group.

Being 10 is the max for barrels on the screen at once, I don't believe Kong releasing barrels comes into play at all regarding making a decision here.

I feel like there should have been a stipulation added to the question such as "Assuming you are trying for max point pressing...", and then I also feel like there is maybe a clever answer to this question based on the premise of attaning maximum points from the scenario.

Otherwise, the answer to the question is left open for wide interpretation, and is basically a matter of opinion.
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Offline stella_blue

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2013, 01:46:40 pm »

You are standing just to the left of the bottom hammer on a Level 5 barrel screen.  There is a single barrel rolling towards you, followed by some relatively short spacing (6 or 7 barrel widths of space), followed by two barrels which are directly on top of each other.  After this, all other barrels on the screen have approximately normal spacing between them.  There are currently 8 barrels already on the structure and Kong is holding a 9th barrel in his hands (he is currently standing upright with the barrel in his hands and is NOT throwing a wild barrel).  There are now two fireballs below you on the first girder, both of which are to the left of the broken ladder.  Assume your options carry equal risk.  Will you...

A)  Back jump the lead barrel, smash it, and proceed with your bottom hammer strategy?

OR

B)  Jump over the lead barrel, wait, then back jump the group of two barrels, smash them both and proceed with your bottom hammer strategy?

Explain.


I'd go with Option B.  All other things being equal, I'll take the 900 points for backjumping and smashing 2 barrels over the 400 points for backjumping and smashing just one.  If none of the first 3 barrels are blue, it also increases my odds of getting 4 blue smashes with the bottom hammer (2 fireballs, 1 blue barrel already on the screen, and 1 blue barrel not yet released).


[BONUS]  Does your answer change if the lead barrel is a blue barrel?  Why or why not?


Yes, I'd switch to Option A.  If the lead barrel is blue, then so is the barrel Kong is holding.  Same reasoning as above with the 4 potential blue smashes.


Does your answer change if one of the two barrels in the group is a blue barrel?  Why or why not?


No, I'd stick with Option B.  The blue barrel just reinforces the decision.

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Offline VON

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2013, 05:53:23 pm »
These quizzes are a sweet idea Dean, keep them coming - although next time you should consider including a screenshot.

My answer is also Option B, and for much of the same reasoning already laid out by Scott.  In general, location of the blue objects is going to dictate when I grab the hammer more than anything else.  I want to give the 2 fireballs on the first girder as much time as possible to ascend and get murdered.

Running out of hammer just before a fireball comes into range can be one of the most dangerous 2nd girder situations. 


EDIT: I choose Option C: climb down a girder and go wrestle the fireballs manually.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2013, 05:59:09 pm by VON »
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Fast Eddie

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2013, 06:21:42 pm »
me too, and ill still go B if the lead barrel is blue since i think waiting will get you an extra barrel so smashing the blue is only worth 25 net points vs extra chance of smashing fireballs if you wait...

 8)

Offline ChrisP

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2013, 06:32:38 pm »
Good example of a topic that is beyond my current skills.

If the fireball is making me nervous, or the blue is coming, I get the hammer.  ;D
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Offline Jonesy

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2013, 10:57:43 pm »
Good example of a topic that is beyond my current skills.

If the fireball is making me nervous, or the blue is coming, I get the hammer.  ;D

Haha me too man! Great answer!!  :D
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Offline stella_blue

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2013, 08:00:09 am »
[BONUS]  Does your answer change if the lead barrel is a blue barrel?  Why or why not?

Yes, I'd switch to Option A.  If the lead barrel is blue, then so is the barrel Kong is holding.  Same reasoning as above with the 4 potential blue smashes.


First of all, I apologize for being an arrogant jerk and actually quoting myself.  I'm doing so because the above highlighted statement is not necessarily true, due to the possibility of one or more wild barrels.  If we number the onscreen barrels in order of release, with #1 as the blue "lead barrel" and #8 as the most recently released barrel, then:
  • If no wild barrels were released between #1 and #8, the barrel that Kong is holding (but has not yet released) will be a blue barrel
  • If one wild barrel was released between #1 and #8 (and has since disappeared offscreen), then barrel #8 becomes the blue barrel
  • If two wild barrels were released, then barrel #7 is blue (and so on)
The wild barrel scenario doesn't change my answer; it actually cements the switch to Option A as the more appealing choice.  I just wanted to correct my original, inaccurate assumption.

In general, once the initial blue barrel is released (on any barrel stage), every 8th barrel thereafter should also be blue, as long as 5 fireballs are not already on the screen.  On Level 5, we would expect barrels 1, 9, 17, 25, 33, 41, 49, 57, 65, and 73 to all be blue.  There is at least one other exception to the "8th barrel" rule (in addition to the 5 fireballs).  I'll post about it later, after I've created a highlight video as documentation.

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Offline LMDAVE

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2013, 04:31:12 pm »
I'd pretty much do Option b on all of them including the lead blue barrel, because you didn't lose the blue barrel, you have the chance of it coming right up after spawning. Cool idea with situation quizzes.

Here's a little video quiz. I made this video a month or so back but never posted it. Just pick up from where I am in the video. Notice clear and spread the upper barrels are (no real threat), and tell me what you would have done different, or would the majority of people end up in the same trap? It's easy to see ways out know what had happened, but playing your normal game would you have ended up in the same situation?

Excuse the language at the end.  :)

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Offline stella_blue

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2013, 05:26:47 pm »

I probably would have died there too, Dave.  That situation went from nonthreatening to incredibly nasty in a big hurry. I might have opted to wait by the longer ladder between the 2nd and 3rd girders, but as you point out, hindsight is 20/20.
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Offline VON

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2013, 07:15:47 pm »
Here's a little video quiz. I made this video a month or so back but never posted it. Just pick up from where I am in the video. Notice clear and spread the upper barrels are (no real threat), and tell me what you would have done different, or would the majority of people end up in the same trap? It's easy to see ways out know what had happened, but playing your normal game would you have ended up in the same situation?
http://www.twitch.tv/lmdave/c/2056770

I would have long jumped to the right side of the middle ladder there.  If you jump too far and are forced to back jump the oncoming barrel the spacing will actually create a 300 point grouping between the back jumped barrel and the barrel coming down the ladder.

A second option would have been to back up a little and try and incorporate the wild barrel into a group jump.

Even in hindsight it's unclear how to best play the situation.

Offline up2ng

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2013, 11:41:41 pm »
Very cool situation there Dave, although we might want to break that out into its own thread.  As played, I agree with Ross, I most likely would have long jumped the lead barrel to get clear of the long ladder.  It's close though, as a few microseconds after you stopped moving that option becomes closed.  At that moment, there actually was a second option which was to run left (left of the wild barrel), trying to clear the broken ladder before that other barrel gets there to prevent steering it.  If that 4th barrel then comes down the broken ladder on it's own, you're probably looking at an extremely difficult, but still possible back jump of that barrel followed by an immediate wall jump over the unjumpable barrel combo.  Since I play out of the corners all the time I've run into my share of these spots and the wall jump can definitely be your friend when all else fails. 

But yeah, when you play out of the corners like that and you have a semi-clear board after the bottom hammer expires you often need to make it a priority to get clear of the long ladder for just that reason.  I've become pretty comfortable long jumping the lead barrel of a short-spaced pair of barrels and that's almost definitely what I would have done in that spot.

This is a great example though of how even a tenth of a second of hesitation or indecision can really screw you in this game.  You must be constantly planning and anticipating, staying a few steps ahead of the game, and always with a couple of backup plans in your pocket if something unusual happens.

------------------------------

I'll wait for a few more responses on my quiz and then I'll post my "answer", probably sometime tomorrow.
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Offline up2ng

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Re: Point Pressing Pop Quiz #1
« Reply #13 on: July 04, 2013, 04:37:45 pm »
This was fun!  Some great responses here although I thought more folks might have an opinion on the subject.

First, we had a couple of questions so I'll try to clear those up:

Quote
I feel like there should have been a stipulation added to the question such as "Assuming you are trying for max point pressing...", and then I also feel like there is maybe a clever answer to this question based on the premise of attaning maximum points from the scenario.

Yes, I was hoping the title of the thread would be enough to clarify that point.  But, you're correct, the idea was to pick an option that should yield the most points on average -- with the assumption that both options carry the same level of risk.  This is often a pretty big assumption and risk certainly should factor into our decisions while playing this game since dying unintentionally is almost always extremely costly.  But given the assumption, we're trying to maximize our points here.

Quote
Question (also just wondering why no one does this in general): Can we forward jump the first barrel while grabbing the hammer and turn around and smash it (like most people do with the top hammer)?

Good question, and I had not thought about this option for this scenario, but I guess I could have added this as a choice.  However, in my opinion, it turns out that this option would be significantly inferior to the other two options presented.  First, we'd again have to assume that this option carries equal risk to the other two options -- this is a pretty big assumption in this case since this is a far more difficult move to pull off successfully (and without dying) for almost all players than the move required in the other two options.  But even if we could imagine a player for whom this technique carries equal risk, it's still the worst option.  The reason is because your horizontal position would end up much farther to the left on the screen after the grab and smash.

In general, with all other factors being equal (for example, you didn't feel a serious urge to chase down a fireball as quickly as possible), you want to begin your bottom hammer timeframe as far to the right of the screen as possible because steering barrels becomes significantly more efficient from that position.  By starting so much farther to the left, you run the risk of missing one or more barrels with your bottom hammer much easier than you would if you began in the more ideal position toward the right side of the screen.

Ok, now, which is the better choice?  Option A or Option B?  In option A, we back jump the lead barrel and smash it, and then turn around just in time to smash the other two barrels which are stacked directly on top of each other.  This maneuver alone yields 100 + 300 + 300 + 300 = 1000 points.  In option B, we perform a standing jump over the lead barrel and then back jump the group of two barrels and smash them both.  This maneuver alone yields 100 + 300 + 300 + 300 = 1000 points.  We have scored 1000 points off of those three barrels in both situations.  So, they are the same right?

Wrong.

With the second option, you have delayed your hammer grab by about a half of a "Kong cycle".  This means that perhaps about half of the time you'll be able to incorporate one additional barrel smash into your bottom hammer.  In addition, occasionally you may be able to smash one more fireball at the tail end of your hammer cycle that would have otherwise been just out of reach.  Assuming you would have jumped over or leeched that last barrel if you were not able to smash it, you would still get 100 points if you come up short, but you'd get 300 points if you smash it.  With Option A, you'll always get 100 points, but with Option B you'll get 100 points about half of the time and you'll get 300 points the other half of the time.  So, on average, this barrel will yield about 200 points with Option B -- you've picked up 100 points (in terms of expectation) by making the decision to go with option B.  This number could even be slightly higher if we realize that occasionally this last barrel could be a blue barrel...

On top of that, fireballs have an expected value of about 429 points (it's been determined recently that they yield about a 4:2:1 point distribution ratio, which may vary slightly based on their internal difficulty level).  If even 10% of the time our delayed hammer grab allows us to smash a fireball that otherwise would have been just out of reach, we've gained about 43 more points from that AND we know that just barely missing a fireball as a hammer expires can cause problems that would often alter our most efficient line for playing out the board -- occasionally causing lost points (or death).  At the very least let's estimate that we are "saving" an additional 57 points from avoiding these problems those times that we ARE just barely able to smash a fireball under Option B.  So, that's perhaps another 100 points in expectation from the fireball (on top of the 100 points in expectation from additional barrel smashes).

Now, for those of you that are still following all of this, a sharp observer might point out "Yeah, but by delaying your hammer grab, you are allowing additional time to tick off of the Bonus Timer, so you might be losing just as much as you're gaining." ...

Ok, this concept is of critical importance to anyone who really wants to get good at the barrel screens.  Conserving Bonus Time has virtually no importance.  In fact, the phrase "Beating the Clock" is a pretty serious misnomer when it comes to barrel screens.  This is because on barrel screens, the Timer is actually NOT a timer at all!  It is a barrel counter.  At the end of the screen, you get 100 Bonus points for every barrel that is still sitting in that pile to Kong's right, unused.  When point pressing a barrel screen, your job is to make sure that you are scoring more than 100 points for every barrel that is released onto the screen, on average.  The more efficiently you can score PER BARREL, the better you will score on the screen, regardless of how much time went by.  In fact, you can finish a barrel screen with the same number of Bonus points remaining in the Timer despite a significantly different amount of real time elapsing!

Well then, how does that relate to our current situation in this quiz?  Well, because of our position on the screen, we have NOT "lost" any barrels, so even if the Timer shows a lower number when grabbing the hammer, no points are actually lost.  This is a change in thinking that is very important in order to really understand point pressing barrel screens.

So, if no points are lost due to what's going on with the Timer, and an equal number of points are scored off of those three initial barrels, but delaying the hammer grab can yield an additional 200 points from subsequent barrels -- then this really is a net gain of 200 points just from this one decision!  That may not seem like much, but when you are going for really big scores, if you can "find" an additional 200 points on every screen throughout the entire game, over the course of 116 screens that can add up to a LOT of points.

BONUS -- So, what if one of our three initial barrels is a blue barrel?  Well, if the blue barrel is part of the group of two, it makes no difference.  The expected number of points scored from these three barrels would still be the same whether we used option A or option B, and option B would still be the best choice for the other reasons already explained.  However, if the LEAD barrel is a blue barrel, the decision is now very close.  A blue barrel has a point distribution ratio of 1:2:1 and will yield 525 points on average.  With option A we will score 100 + 525 + 300 + 300 = 1225 points from the initial three barrels.  With option B we will score 100 + 300 + 300 + 300 = 1000 points from the initial three barrels.  This is a LOSS of 225 points up front.  If we can still assume a net gain of 200 points by delaying our hammer grab in Option B, now there isn't much difference between the two options.  Incidentally, in this case, because we know the location of a blue barrel (the lead barrel), it's now almost impossible for that last barrel on the tail end of our hammer cycle to be a blue barrel because of what we know about how the blue barrels are spaced out.  On the other hand, missing the blue barrel now would result in a fireball spawning which could eventually be smashed some small percentage of the time (which would tend to favor option B, although this fireball might be just as likely to just cause other problems which might cancel this out).  In the end, I think this scenario is probably very close and I would probably switch my answer in this case to Option A when the lead barrel is blue.

Hopefully some people enjoyed this quiz and my analysis of the situation.  I'll try to come up with another one soon.
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